Logit Success Record
| Games Played on |
Number of Games |
Successful Predictions |
Success %
all games |
Wins at home %
|
Predicted from games thru |
|---|
| 03-29 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 03-25 |
| 03-27 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0% | 03-25 |
| 03-25 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0% | 03-23 |
| 03-23 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 03-21 |
| 03-21 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0% | 03-20 |
| 03-20 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0% | 03-18 |
| 03-19 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0% | 03-18 |
| 03-18 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 100% | 03-17 |
| 03-17 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 50% | 03-16 |
| 03-16 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 33% | 03-15 |
| 03-15 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 80% | 03-14 |
| 03-14 | 8 | 3 | 38% | 100% | 03-13 |
| 03-13 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 0% | 03-11 |
| 03-12 | 16 | 11 | 69% | 100% | 03-11 |
| 03-11 | 16 | 10 | 62% | 0% | 03-10 |
| 03-10 | 16 | 13 | 81% | 81% | 03-07 |
| 03-07 | 4 | 4 | 100% | 0% | 03-05 |
| 03-06 | 23 | 13 | 57% | 0% | 03-05 |
| 03-05 | 34 | 26 | 76% | 83% | 03-04 |
| 03-04 | 41 | 32 | 78% | 58% | 03-03 |
| 03-03 | 22 | 15 | 68% | 0% | 03-02 |
| 03-02 | 11 | 8 | 73% | 0% | 03-01 |
| 03-01 | 7 | 6 | 86% | 0% | 02-28 |
| 02-28 | 32 | 21 | 66% | 81% | 02-27 |
| 02-27 | 110 | 78 | 71% | 71% | 02-25 |
| 02-26 | 25 | 18 | 72% | 68% | 02-25 |
| 02-25 | 49 | 33 | 67% | 63% | 02-24 |
| 02-24 | 31 | 20 | 65% | 68% | 02-23 |
| 02-23 | 14 | 10 | 71% | 71% | 02-22 |
| 02-22 | 19 | 15 | 79% | 63% | 02-21 |
| 02-21 | 19 | 16 | 84% | 74% | 02-20 |
| 02-20 | 126 | 85 | 67% | 65% | 02-18 |
| 02-19 | 10 | 8 | 80% | 50% | 02-18 |
| 02-18 | 60 | 42 | 70% | 55% | 02-16 |
| 02-17 | 44 | 34 | 77% | 70% | 02-16 |
| 02-16 | 19 | 18 | 95% | 63% | 02-15 |
| 02-15 | 33 | 24 | 73% | 48% | 02-14 |
| 02-14 | 17 | 11 | 65% | 53% | 02-13 |
| 02-13 | 128 | 91 | 71% | 69% | 02-11 |
| 02-12 | 10 | 8 | 80% | 80% | 02-11 |
| 02-11 | 65 | 41 | 63% | 69% | 02-10 |
| 02-10 | 49 | 38 | 78% | 61% | 02-09 |
| 02-09 | 10 | 8 | 80% | 50% | 02-08 |
| 02-08 | 37 | 26 | 70% | 68% | 02-07 |
| 02-07 | 16 | 12 | 75% | 69% | 02-06 |
| 02-06 | 130 | 77 | 59% | 52% | 02-04 |
| 02-05 | 7 | 6 | 86% | 43% | 02-04 |
| 02-04 | 60 | 41 | 68% | 68% | 02-03 |
| 02-03 | 45 | 33 | 73% | 62% | 02-02 |
| 02-02 | 16 | 11 | 69% | 62% | 02-01 |
| 02-01 | 39 | 25 | 64% | 56% | 01-30 |
| 01-31 | 17 | 13 | 76% | 88% | 01-30 |
| 01-30 | 132 | 106 | 80% | 63% | 01-28 |
| 01-29 | 7 | 7 | 100% | 43% | 01-28 |
| 01-28 | 62 | 44 | 71% | 66% | 01-27 |
| 01-27 | 49 | 36 | 73% | 70% | 01-26 |
| 01-26 | 7 | 5 | 71% | 43% | 01-25 |
| 01-25 | 37 | 32 | 86% | 72% | 01-24 |
| 01-24 | 17 | 12 | 71% | 71% | 01-23 |
| 01-23 | 131 | 90 | 69% | 63% | 01-21 |
| 01-22 | 7 | 3 | 43% | 29% | 01-21 |
| 01-21 | 60 | 41 | 68% | 58% | 01-20 |
| 01-20 | 41 | 29 | 71% | 56% | 01-19 |
| 01-19 | 17 | 13 | 76% | 59% | 01-18 |
| 01-18 | 42 | 33 | 79% | 69% | 01-17 |
| 01-17 | 13 | 10 | 77% | 62% | 01-16 |
| 01-16 | 129 | 82 | 64% | 61% | 01-13 |
| 01-15 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 88% | 01-13 |
| 01-14 | 55 | 38 | 69% | 64% | 01-13 |
| 01-13 | 53 | 45 | 85% | 62% | 01-12 |
| 01-12 | 21 | 13 | 62% | 43% | 01-10 |
| 01-11 | 27 | 19 | 70% | 59% | 01-10 |
| 01-10 | 19 | 14 | 74% | 68% | 01-09 |
| 01-09 | 123 | 88 | 72% | 67% | 01-07 |
| 01-08 | 12 | 7 | 58% | 42% | 01-07 |
| 01-07 | 59 | 44 | 75% | 66% | 01-05 |
| 01-06 | 41 | 31 | 76% | 59% | 01-05 |
| 01-05 | 18 | 9 | 50% | 82% | 01-03 |
| 01-04 | 67 | 45 | 67% | 64% | 01-03 |
| 01-03 | 16 | 12 | 75% | 73% | 01-01 |
| 01-02 | 113 | 82 | 73% | 65% | 01-01 |
| 12-31 | 7 | 6 | 86% | 86% | 12-30 |
| 12-30 | 74 | 55 | 74% | 75% | 12-27 |
| 12-29 | 61 | 51 | 84% | 79% | 12-27 |
| 12-28 | 47 | 35 | 74% | 70% | 12-27 |
| 12-27 | 28 | 19 | 68% | 76% | 12-20 |
| 12-26 | 5 | 2 | 40% | 60% | 12-20 |
| 12-24 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 12-20 |
| 12-23 | 31 | 24 | 77% | 66% | 12-20 |
| 12-22 | 68 | 53 | 78% | 82% | 12-20 |
| 12-21 | 47 | 37 | 79% | 71% | 12-20 |
| 12-20 | 18 | 14 | 78% | 78% | 12-13 |
| 12-19 | 88 | 67 | 76% | 68% | 12-13 |
| 12-18 | 9 | 7 | 78% | 62% | 12-13 |
| 12-17 | 25 | 23 | 92% | 92% | 12-13 |
| 12-16 | 14 | 9 | 64% | 57% | 12-13 |
| 12-15 | 20 | 11 | 55% | 75% | 12-13 |
| 12-14 | 10 | 10 | 100% | 90% | 12-13 |
| 12-13 | 6 | 5 | 83% | 80% | 12-07 |
| 12-12 | 102 | 73 | 72% | 74% | 12-07 |
| 12-11 | 12 | 9 | 75% | 100% | 12-07 |
| 12-10 | 18 | 15 | 83% | 78% | 12-07 |
| 12-09 | 31 | 21 | 68% | 81% | 12-07 |
| 12-08 | 44 | 31 | 70% | 72% | 12-07 |
- For NCAA College Men's Basketball: Top 25 Measures and Rankings
- For Men's College Basketball: Top 300 teams rankings
- For Men's College Basketball: Logit prediction success
- For College Football predictions & Top 25 rankings
- For College Football all 200+ rankings
How to predict
Logit measures predict as follows:
(a) Note down the BCUs of the guest team.
(b) Note down the BCUs of the home team.
(c) Add the home court advantage BCUs to the home team.
(d) The team with more BCUs will win (guest or home+advantage)
(e) Teams in the complete ranking will win over unranked teams.
Notes:
- Home field advantage is worth extra BCUs (Basketball Competency Units).
These are added to the home team's BCUs.
- An advantage of 70 BCU's gives a team "2-to-1 on" odds of winning.
- Based on Rasch analysis of published results of major games available at time of
computation.
- Intended solely as the demonstration of a measurement method.
- The game scores were provided by a variety of
Media and Internet sources, including ABC, NBC, CBS, ESPN, AP, Yahoo and the
websites of the schools themselves. AP and ESPN rankings are provided by those organizations.
Linear Measures produced by Mike Linacre
This is an illustration of measurement using the method of paired comparisons.
Leon L. Thurstone, of the University of Chicago, perceived the necessity that
measures be independent of sampling and testing specifics. Measures
based on paired comparisons meet this criterion. Bradley and Terry proposed
this model but from a descriptive, rather than measurement, perspective.
Consequently, they noticed, but did not capitalize on, the linearity of the
measures produced. Georg Rasch perceived the linearity of measures produced
from ordinal data by logit-linear models. Since mathematical expression
of such models obscures their immediate utility and ease of application,
they are illustrated here by a simple paired comparison analysis of NCAA
game outcomes. Current applications of this method include the pricing of
medical procedures and determining the relative severity of crimes.
Thurstone, L.L. The method of paired comparisons for social
values. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 1927b, 21,
384-400.
Bradley, R.A. and Terry, M E. Rank analysis of incomplete
block designs I: The method of paired comparisons. Biometrika,
1952, 39, 324-345.
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