For current rankings, see Jeff Sagarin's rating index
Linear Rank 01-05 | Rank 1998 |
Measures in FCUs 01-05 |
College Football Team (won-loss: opponent strength / best win / worst loss) thru 01-04 |
AP Rank (BCS) 01-04 | ESPN Rank 01-04 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 1044 | FLORIDA ST (12-0 783/983/0) | 1 (1) | 1 |
2 | 21 | 1014 | NEBRASKA (12-1 768/927/878) | 3 (3) | 2 |
3 | 13 | 999 | MICHIGAN (10-2 810/1000/801) | 5 (8) | 5 |
4 | 45 | 990 | MICHIGAN ST (10-2 799/947/885) | 7 (9) | 7 |
5 | 29 | 983 | VIRGINIA TECH (11-1 717/865/1044) | 2 (2) | 3 |
6 | 11 | 979 | KANSAS ST (11-1 694/878/1066) | 6 (6) | 6 |
7 | 31 | 961 | MARSHALL (13-0 581/844/0) | 10 (12) | 10 |
8 | 4 | 948 | WISCONSIN (10-2 701/938/649) | 4 (7) | 4 |
9 | 37 | 946 | ALABAMA (10-3 821/934/792) | 8 (4) | 8 |
10 | 15 | 941 | PENN ST (10-3 786/932/769) | 11 (11) | 11 |
11 | 1 | 914 | TENNESSEE (9-3 770/998/887) | 9 (5) | 9 |
12 | 38 | 910 | MISSISSIPPI ST (10-2 698/801/887) | 13 | 12 |
13 | 49 | 900 | SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (9-3 697/854/899) | 14 | 13 |
14 | 3 | 882 | FLORIDA (9-4 773/862/894) | 12 (10) | 14 |
15 | 18 | 880 | MIAMI FLA (9-4 760/845/854) | 15 | 15 |
16 | 36 | 860 | OREGON (9-3 732/821/754) | 19 | 18 |
17 | 108 | 853 | ILLINOIS (8-4 765/1051/708) | 24 | 25 |
18 | 9 | 847 | TEXAS A&M (8-4 745/896/766) | 23 (14) | 20 |
19 | 75 | 844 | LOUISIANA TECH (8-3 679/998/792) | ||
20 | 86 | 842 | UTAH (9-3 715/873/740) | ||
21 | 27 | 835 | ARKANSAS (8-4 724/878/687) | 17 | 19 |
22 | 24 | 833 | PURDUE (7-5 782/938/832) | 25 | |
23 | 12 | 832 | GEORGIA (8-4 727/864/697) | 16 | 16 |
24 | 14 | 826 | TEXAS (9-5 754/962/688) | 21 (15) | 23 |
25 | 10 | 825 | GEORGIA TECH (8-4 745/780/801) | 20 | 21 |
Home field advantage = 52 FCUs for games up through 01-04 |
Weekend | Games | Home wins | Home win % | Predicted wins | Predicted win % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 | 5 | 3 | 60 | 2 | 40 |
Week 2 | 81 | 52 | 64 | 62 | 76 |
Week 3 | 93 | 68 | 73 | 70 | 75 |
Week 4 | 96 | 59 | 61 | 67 | 69 |
Week 5 | 97 | 58 | 59 | 71 | 73 |
Week 6 | 102 | 60 | 58 | 74 | 72 |
Week 7 | 103 | 70 | 67 | 79 | 76 |
Week 8 | 101 | 54 | 53 | 71 | 70 |
Week 9 | 102 | 57 | 55 | 68 | 66 |
Week 10 | 107 | 60 | 56 | 83 | 77 |
Week 11 | 101 | 60 | 59 | 77 | 76 |
Week 12 | 104 | 60 | 57 | 74 | 71 |
Week 13 | 92 | 49 | 53 | 69 | 75 |
Week 14 | 29 | 20 | 68 | 20 | 68 |
Week 15 | 9 | 3 | 50 | 7 | 77 |
Week 16 | 3 | 3 | 100 | 2 | 66 |
Week 17 | 2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
Bowls | 23 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 43 |
All Bowl Forecasts & Scores | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mike's success 43%; CNN success 39%. Ugh! | ||||
Bowl | Location | Date | Teams | Forecast Winner |
LAS VEGAS BOWL | Las Vegas, Nevada | Dec. 18, 1999 | Fresno State (739) vs. Utah (833) |
Mike: Utah CNN: Utah Utah 17-16 |
MOBILE ALABAMA BOWL | Mobile, Alabama | Dec. 22, 1999, 7:30 p.m. ET |
TCU (703) vs. East Carolina (848) |
Mike: East Carolina CNN: East Carolina TCU 28-14 |
JEEP ALOHA BOWL | Honolulu, Hawaii | Dec. 25, 1999, 3:30 p.m. ET |
Arizona State (760) vs. Wake Forest (740) |
Mike: Arizona State CNN: Wake Forest Wake Forest 23-3 |
JEEP OAHU BOWL | Honolulu, Hawaii | Dec. 25, 1999, 8:30 p.m, ET |
Oregon State (778) vs. Hawaii (H-749) |
Mike: Oregon State CNN: Oregon State Hawaii 23-17 |
MOTOR CITY BOWL | Pontiac, Michigan | Dec. 27, 1999, 2:30 p.m. ET |
Marshall (946) vs. BYU (837) |
Mike:Marshall CNN: Marshall Marshall 21-3 |
SYLVANIA ALAMO BOWL | San Antonio, Texas | Dec. 28, 1999, 7:30 p.m. ET |
Penn State (906) vs. Texas A&M (H-935) |
Mike: Texas A&M CNN: Texas A&M Penn State 24-0 |
MUSIC CITY BOWL | Nashville, Tennessee | Dec. 29, 1999, 5 p.m. ET |
Kentucky (H-814) vs. Syracuse (711) |
Mike: Kentucky CNN: Kentucky |
CULLIGAN HOLIDAY BOWL | San Diego, California | Dec. 29, 1999, 8 p.m, ET |
Kansas State (973) vs. Washington (814) |
Mike: Kansas State CNN: Kansas State Kansas State 24-20 |
HUMANITARIAN BOWL | Boise, Idaho | Dec. 30, 1999, 3 p.m. ET |
Louisville (758) vs. Boise State (H-814) |
Mike: Boise St CNN: Louisville Boise St 34-31 |
MICRONPC.COM BOWL | Miami, Florida | Dec. 30, 1999, 7 p.m. ET |
Virginia (841) vs. Illinois (823) |
Mike: Virginia CNN: Virginia Illinois 63-21 |
CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL | Atlanta Georgia | Dec. 30,1999, 7:30 p.m. ET |
Clemson (811) vs. Mississippi State (890) |
Mike: Mississippi State CNN: Clemson Mississippi St 17-7 |
WELLS FARGO SUN BOWL | El Paso, Texas | Dec. 31, 1999, 2:15 p.m. ET |
Oregon (844) vs. Minnesota (835) |
Mike: Oregon CNN: Minnesota Oregon 24-20 |
INSIGHT.COM BOWL | Tucson, Arizona | Dec. 31, 1999, 1:30 p.m. ET |
Colorado (763) vs. Boston College (799) |
Mike: Boston College CNN: Boston College Colorado 62-28 |
AXA/EQUITABLE LIBERTY BOWL | Memphis, Tennessee | Dec. 31,1999, 5 p.m. ET |
Southern Miss (897) vs. Colorado State (840) |
Mike: Southern Miss CNN: Southern Miss Southern Miss 23-17 |
SANFORD INDEPENDENCE BOWL | Shreveport, Louisiana | Dec. 31, 1999, 8:30 p.m. ET |
Mississippi (786) vs. Oklahoma (796) |
Mike: Oklahoma CNN: Oklahoma Mississippi 27-25 |
SOUTHWESTERN BELL COTTON BOWL | Dallas, Texas | Jan. 1, 2000, 11 a.m. ET |
Texas (917-H) vs. Arkansas (802) |
Mike: Texas CNN: Texas Arkansas 27-6 |
OUTBACK BOWL | Tampa, Florida | Jan. 1, 2000, 11 a.m. ET |
Purdue (845) vs. Georgia (809) |
Mike: Purdue CNN: Purdue Georgia 28-5 |
TOYOTA GATOR BOWL | Jacksonville, Florida | Jan. 1, 2000, 12:30 p.m. ET |
Miami (860) vs. Georgia Tech (850) |
Mike: Miami CNN: Miami Miami 28-13 |
COMPUSA FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL | Orlando, Florida | Jan. 1, 2000, 1 p.m. ET |
Michigan State (953) vs. Florida (959-H) |
Mike: Florida CNN: Michigan State Michigan State 37-34 |
ROSE BOWL | Pasadena, California | Jan. 1, 2000, 5 p.m. ET |
Wisconsin (918) vs. Stanford (898-H) |
Mike: Wisconsin CNN: Wisconsin Wisconsin 17-9 |
FEDEX ORANGE BOWL | Miami, Florida | Jan. 1, 2000, 8 p.m. ET |
Michigan (955) vs. Alabama (966) |
Mike: Alabama CNN: Michigan Michigan 35-34 |
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL | Tempe, Arizona | Jan. 2, 2000, 7:30 p.m. ET |
Nebraska (1007) vs. Tennessee (935) |
Mike: Nebraska CNN: Nebraska Nebraska 31-21 |
NOKIA SUGAR BOWL | New Orleans, Louisiana | Jan. 4, 2000, 8 p.m. ET |
Florida State (1028) vs. Virginia Tech (978) |
Mike: Florida State CNN: Virginia Tech Florida State 46-29 |
Linear Measures produced by Mike Linacre
The Health Care Finance Administration (HCFA) has recently approved Rasch "paired comparison" methodology for the identification of misvalued procedures, see Total Physician Work. Leon L. Thurstone perceived the necessity that measures be independent of sampling and testing specifics. Measures based on paired comparisons meet this criterion. Bradley and Terry proposed this model but from a descriptive, rather than measurement, perspective. Consequently, they noticed, but did not capitalize on, the linearity of the measures produced. Georg Rasch perceived the linearity of measures produced from ordinal data by logit-linear models.
Since mathematical expression
of such models obscures their immediate utility and ease of application,
they are illustrated here by a simple paired comparison analysis of NCAA
game outcomes. Obvious advantages include:
(a) all teams are ranked, not just the favored few
(b) all teams are located on a linear measurement scale
(c) all teams are given equal attention
(d) the data are easy to obtain, even for non-experts
(e) rare, idiosyncratic results can be indentified, and, even if left
unremedied, produce minimal distortion.
(f) it is noticeable, in these data, that the conventional ranking services
pay too much attention to won-loss record - and even particular wins and losses
(the immediate details), and not enough to strength of schedule (the big picture).
Thurstone, L.L. The method of paired comparisons for social values. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 1927, 21, 384-400.
Bradley, R.A. and Terry, M E. Rank analysis of incomplete block designs I: The method of paired comparisons. Biometrika, 1952, 39, 324-345.
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