Poisson counts, Binomial trials, Negative (inverse) binomial trials |
Conceptually, the Poisson Counts model has an infinite number of categories, 0, 1, 2, onwards. In practice, due to time limits and other constraints, there is a finite maximum possible. If that maximum is much higher than the highest observed category, then the Poisson model continues to apply from a practical perspective. If the observed highest is close to the absolute maximum, then use a constrained rating scale. In Winsteps, do this with
to set the 0 to absolute maximum range of categories, and
to set the function controlling the Andrich thresholds
SFUNCTION=2 is a good starting value.
The Winsteps program can analyze Poisson count data, with a little work. Poisson counts are a very long rating (or partial credit) scale with pre-set structure. The Andrich Thresholds are loge(n), n=1 upwards. You can define a structure anchor file in this way:
XWIDE=2 STKEEP=YES CODES = 00010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839+ +40414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879+ +8081828384858687888990919293949596979899 SAFILE=* 0 0 ; placeholder for the bottom count 1 0 ; the value corresponding to log(1) - the pivot point for the item measure 2 .693 ; the value corresponding to loge(2) 3 1.099 ; the value corresponding to loge(3) |
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4 1.386 5 1.609 6 1.792 7 1.946 8 2.079 9 2.197 10 2.303 11 2.398 12 2.485 13 2.565 14 2.639 15 2.708 16 2.773 17 2.833 18 2.890 19 2.944 20 2.996 21 3.045 22 3.091 23 3.135 24 3.178 25 3.219 26 3.258 27 3.296 |
28 3.332 29 3.367 30 3.401 31 3.434 32 3.466 33 3.497 34 3.526 35 3.555 36 3.584 37 3.611 38 3.638 39 3.664 40 3.689 41 3.714 42 3.738 43 3.761 44 3.784 45 3.807 46 3.829 47 3.850 48 3.871 49 3.892 50 3.912 51 3.932 |
52 3.951 53 3.970 54 3.989 55 4.007 56 4.025 57 4.043 58 4.060 59 4.078 60 4.094 61 4.111 62 4.127 63 4.143 64 4.159 65 4.174 66 4.190 67 4.205 68 4.220 69 4.234 70 4.248 71 4.263 72 4.277 73 4.290 74 4.304 75 4.317 |
76 4.331 77 4.344 78 4.357 79 4.369 80 4.382 81 4.394 82 4.407 83 4.419 84 4.431 85 4.443 86 4.454 87 4.466 88 4.477 89 4.489 90 4.500 91 4.511 92 4.522 93 4.533 94 4.543 95 4.554 96 4.564 97 4.575 98 4.585 99 4.595 * |
Arrange that the observations have an upper limit much less than 99, or extend the range of CODES= and SAFILE= to be considerably wider than the observations. Winsteps can go up to category 32767.
Use UASCALE= to multiply all Poisson Andrich Thresholds by a constant to adjust the "natural" form of the Poisson counts to the actual discrimination of your empirical Poisson process, or do the multiplication yourself, which can be different for different items. You need to adjust the constant so that the average overall mean-square of the analysis is about 1.0. See RMT 14:2 about using mean-squares to adjust logit user-scaling. (The Facets program does this automatically, if so instructed.)
But my experience with running Poisson counts in the Facets program (which supports them directly) is that most "Poisson count" data do not match the Poisson process well, and are more usefully parameterized as a rating (or partial credit) scale. There is nearly always some other aspect of the situation that perturbs the pure Poisson process, especially by placing a ceiling value on the observations.
Theory: See Wikipedia . The Poisson model is P(k events in an interval) = e-λ λk /k! so that P(k)/P(k-1) = λ/k, which is implemented in Winsteps as ln(P(k)/P(k-1)) = B - D - ln(k)/UASCALE where B is the person ability, D is the item difficulty, and 1/UASCALE is the Poisson-scale discrimination parameter.
Binomial trials: same as above, with loge(n(m-n+1)) where m is a fixed number of trials and n is the number of successes for n=0 to m, so that there a m thresholds. We can use UASCALE= to adjust for scale discrimination as above.
Negative (inverse) binomial trials: same as above where m is the number of trials and n is a fixed number of successes. For convenience, enter the data as x = (m-n) = number of failures, which will go from 0 to a large number (similar to Poisson counts above). Again we can pre-compute the Andrich thresholds for every observation = log (probability of observing x failures / probability of observing x-1 failures) when we are targeting n successes. If the number of successes is constant for each item, then we can use Winsteps. If it varies across observations within an item, we must use Facets. We can use UASCALE= to adjust for scale discrimination as above.
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