Poisson counts, Binomial trials, Negative (inverse) binomial trials

Conceptually, the Poisson Counts model has an infinite number of categories, 0, 1, 2, onwards. In practice, due to time limits and other constraints, there is a finite maximum possible. If that maximum is much higher than the highest observed category, then the Poisson model continues to apply from a practical perspective. If the observed highest is close to the absolute maximum, then use a constrained rating scale. In Winsteps, do this with

ISRANGE=

to set the 0 to absolute maximum range of categories, and

SFUNCTION=

to set the function controlling the Andrich thresholds

SFUNCTION=2 is a good starting value.

 

The Winsteps program can analyze Poisson count data, with a little work. Poisson counts are a very long rating (or partial credit) scale with pre-set structure. The Andrich Thresholds are loge(n), n=1 upwards. You can define a structure anchor file in this way:

 

XWIDE=2

 STKEEP=YES

 CODES = 00010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839+

  +40414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879+

  +8081828384858687888990919293949596979899

SAFILE=*

0 0      ; placeholder for the bottom count

1 0      ; the value corresponding to log(1) - the pivot point for the item measure

2 .693   ; the value corresponding to loge(2)

3 1.099  ; the value corresponding to loge(3)

4 1.386

5 1.609

6 1.792

7 1.946

8 2.079

9 2.197

10 2.303

11 2.398

12 2.485

13 2.565

14 2.639

15 2.708

16 2.773

17 2.833

18 2.890

19 2.944

20 2.996

21 3.045

22 3.091

23 3.135

24 3.178

25 3.219

26 3.258

27 3.296

28 3.332

29 3.367

30 3.401

31 3.434

32 3.466

33 3.497

34 3.526

35 3.555

36 3.584

37 3.611

38 3.638

39 3.664

40 3.689

41 3.714

42 3.738

43 3.761

44 3.784

45 3.807

46 3.829

47 3.850

48 3.871

49 3.892

50 3.912

51 3.932

52 3.951

53 3.970

54 3.989

55 4.007

56 4.025

57 4.043

58 4.060

59 4.078

60 4.094

61 4.111

62 4.127

63 4.143

64 4.159

65 4.174

66 4.190

67 4.205

68 4.220

69 4.234

70 4.248

71 4.263

72 4.277

73 4.290

74 4.304

75 4.317

76 4.331

77 4.344

78 4.357

79 4.369

80 4.382

81 4.394

82 4.407

83 4.419

84 4.431

85 4.443

86 4.454

87 4.466

88 4.477

89 4.489

90 4.500

91 4.511

92 4.522

93 4.533

94 4.543

95 4.554

96 4.564

97 4.575

98 4.585

99 4.595

*

 

Arrange that the observations have an upper limit much less than 99, or extend the range of CODES= and SAFILE= to be considerably wider than the observations. Winsteps can go up to category 32767.

 

Use UASCALE= to multiply all Poisson Andrich Thresholds by a constant to adjust the "natural" form of the Poisson counts to the actual discrimination of  your empirical Poisson process, or do the multiplication yourself, which can be different for different items. You need to adjust the constant so that the average overall mean-square of the analysis is about 1.0. See RMT 14:2 about using mean-squares to adjust logit user-scaling.  (The Facets program does this automatically, if so instructed.)

 

But my experience with running Poisson counts in the Facets program (which supports them directly) is that most "Poisson count" data do not match the Poisson process well, and are more usefully parameterized as a rating (or partial credit) scale. There is nearly always some other aspect of the situation that perturbs the pure Poisson process, especially by placing a ceiling value on the observations.

 

Theory: See Wikipedia . The Poisson model is P(k events in an interval) = e-λ λk /k! so that P(k)/P(k-1) = λ/k, which is implemented in Winsteps as ln(P(k)/P(k-1)) = B - D - ln(k)/UASCALE where B is the person ability, D is the item difficulty, and 1/UASCALE is the Poisson-scale discrimination parameter.

 

Binomial trials: same as above, with loge(n(m-n+1)) where m is a fixed number of trials and n is the number of successes for n=0 to m, so that there a m thresholds. We can use UASCALE= to adjust for scale discrimination as above.

 

Negative (inverse) binomial trials: same as above where m is the number of trials and n is a fixed number of successes. For convenience, enter the data as x = (m-n) = number of failures, which will go from 0 to a large number (similar to Poisson counts above). Again we can pre-compute the Andrich thresholds for every observation = log (probability of observing x failures / probability of observing x-1 failures) when we are targeting n successes. If the number of successes is constant for each item, then we can use Winsteps. If it varies across observations within an item, we must use Facets. We can use UASCALE= to adjust for scale discrimination as above.


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