Measuring Romance with Rasch: Batchelorette Australia, 2018, (Series 10)

Batchelorette Aus guy Cumulative Measures
Winsteps Table 45 Plot: Cumulative guy measures after each episode

 

MEASURE TASK - MAP - Guy Nov 15
           EASY|LESS
  100          +  Max
               |
               |
               |
               |
   90          +
               |
               |
               |
               |T
   80          +
               |
               |
               |
               |
   70          +
               |
               |
               |
               |
               |
   60         T+S
               |
           XX  |  02-Todd     03-Bill     Taite
              S|  04-Charlie
          XXX  |
   50     XXX  +
            X M|
               |  05-Daniel   08-Robert
               |
           XX  |  06-Dan      07-Paddy
   40       X S+  10-Danny    11-Jules
            X  |
            X  |M 09-Peter    12-Ivan
              T|
               |
   30          +
               |
               |  13-Nathan   14-Damien
               |
               |
   20          +
               |  15-Wesley
               |
               |  16-Cheyne
               |S
   10          +
               |
               |
               |
               |
               |
    0          +  Min
               |  17-Ben      18-Brendan
               |
               |
               |
  -10          +T
           HARD|MORE

The guys' desirabilities are shown in the Wright Person-Item map: Winsteps Table 16.3.


Guy Nov 14 STATISTICS:  MEASURE ORDER
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|ENTRY   TOTAL  TOTAL           MODEL|   INFIT  |  OUTFIT  |EXACT MATCH|        |           |
|NUMBER  SCORE  COUNT  MEASURE  S.E. |MNSQ  ZSTD|MNSQ  ZSTD| OBS%  EXP%|DISPLACE| Guy Nov 14|
|------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+-----------|
|    19      4      2   100.0A   22.0| .15  -.53| .14  -.56|100.0  88.1|      .0| Max       |
|     2     26     13    46.6     3.6| .74  -.56| .66  -.41| 46.2  47.1|      .1| Todd      |
|     3     25     12    46.6     3.6|1.01   .17| .99   .19| 50.0  43.5|      .1| 03-Bill   |
|     1     25     13    45.3     3.6|1.15   .49|1.31   .65| 53.8  55.7|      .1| Taite     |
|     4     23     11    45.2     3.8|1.32   .79| .94   .15| 54.5  59.7|      .1| 04-Charlie|
|     8     15      8    37.8     5.1|1.42   .77|1.51   .77| 50.0  71.9|      .1| 08-Robert |
|     5     17     10    37.6     4.1| .67  -.53| .51  -.26| 50.0  63.7|      .1| 05-Daniel |
|     6     14      9    33.5     4.4| .31 -1.47| .21  -.63| 66.7  52.5|      .1| 06-Dan    |
|     7     14      9    33.5     4.4| .60  -.60|1.02   .41| 44.4  52.5|      .1| 07-Paddy  |
|    11     10      6    30.6     6.5| .86   .10| .46  -.01| 66.7  70.0|      .0| 11-Jules  |
|    10     11      7    30.4     5.5| .56  -.65| .33  -.19| 71.4  62.1|      .0| 10-Danny  |
|     9     10      7    27.4     5.4| .67  -.45| .55   .08| 57.1  60.7|      .0| 09-Peter  |
|    12      9      6    26.6     6.1|1.01   .25| .63   .16| 50.0  67.7|      .0| 12-Ivan   |
|    13      6      5    17.6     6.3| .70  -.41| .43  -.13| 60.0  53.7|      .0| 13-Nathan |
|    14      5      4    16.7     7.9| .96   .14| .62   .16| 50.0  61.7|      .0| 14-Damien |
|    15      4      4    10.6     7.8| .24 -1.19| .19  -.74|100.0  72.5|      .0| 15-Wesley |
|    16      3      3     6.1     9.1| .82  -.05| .66   .02| 33.3  53.5|     -.1| 16-Cheyne |
|    20      0      2      .0A   20.7|3.21  1.48|3.05  1.43| 50.0  86.5|   -38.0| Min       |
|    17      1      2    -9.4    13.0| .31  -.28| .34  -.47|100.0  74.0|     -.1| 17-Ben    |
|    18      1      2    -9.4    13.0| .31  -.28| .34  -.47|100.0  74.0|     -.1| 18-Brendan|
|------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+-----------|
| MEAN    11.1    6.8    28.7     7.8| .85   -.1| .74    .0| 62.7  63.6|    -1.9|           |
| P.SD     8.3    3.7    23.8     5.3| .64    .7| .64    .5| 20.4  11.7|     8.3|           |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Guy Nov 15 STATISTICS:  MEASURE ORDER
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|ENTRY   TOTAL  TOTAL           MODEL|   INFIT  |  OUTFIT  |EXACT MATCH|        | Win |           |
|NUMBER  SCORE  COUNT  MEASURE  S.E. |MNSQ  ZSTD|MNSQ  ZSTD| OBS%  EXP%|DISPLACE|Prob%| Guy Nov 15|
|------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+-----|-----------|
|    19      4      2   100.0A   19.6| .23  -.49| .20  -.41|100.0  84.0|      .8|     | Max       |
|     3     25     12    55.6     3.6|1.01   .17| .99   .17| 50.0  43.4|      .1|     | 03-Bill   |
|     2     25     13    54.9     3.6| .77  -.49| .74  -.36| 46.2  46.4|      .1|     | 02-Todd   |<-- Eliminated
|     1     26     14    54.9     3.5|1.13   .46|1.31   .72| 42.9  49.1|      .1|100.0| Taite     |
|     4     23     11    54.2     3.8|1.32   .79| .94   .11| 54.5  59.6|      .1|     | 04-Charlie|
|     8     15      8    46.8     5.1|1.42   .77|1.51   .77| 50.0  71.8|      .0|     | 08-Robert |
|     5     17     10    46.6     4.1| .67  -.53| .51  -.35| 50.0  63.6|      .1|     | 05-Daniel |
|     6     14      9    42.5     4.4| .31 -1.47| .21  -.70| 66.7  52.5|      .0|     | 06-Dan    |
|     7     14      9    42.5     4.4| .61  -.60|1.02   .40| 44.4  52.5|      .0|     | 07-Paddy  |
|    11     10      6    39.5     6.5| .86   .10| .46  -.01| 66.7  70.1|      .0|     | 11-Jules  |
|    10     11      7    39.4     5.5| .56  -.65| .32  -.19| 71.4  62.1|      .0|     | 10-Danny  |
|     9     10      7    36.4     5.4| .67  -.44| .55   .09| 57.1  60.7|      .0|     | 09-Peter  |
|    12      9      6    35.6     6.1|1.02   .26| .63   .17| 50.0  67.7|      .0|     | 12-Ivan   |
|    13      6      5    26.4     6.3| .70  -.40| .42  -.06| 60.0  54.0|      .0|     | 13-Nathan |
|    14      5      4    25.5     8.0| .97   .15| .62   .16| 50.0  62.1|      .0|     | 14-Damien |
|    15      4      4    19.3     7.9| .24 -1.17| .18  -.62|100.0  73.1|      .0|     | 15-Wesley |
|    16      3      3    14.5     9.2| .81  -.05| .65   .08| 33.3  54.2|     -.1|     | 16-Cheyne |
|    20      0      2      .0A   20.5|2.43  1.23|1.60   .83| 50.0  85.0|   -25.1|     | Min       |
|    17      1      2    -1.8    13.4| .28  -.26| .30  -.44|100.0  75.8|     -.1|     | 17-Ben    |
|    18      1      2    -1.8    13.4| .28  -.26| .30  -.44|100.0  75.8|     -.1|     | 18-Brendan|
|------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+-----|-----------|
| MEAN    11.1    6.8    36.5     7.7| .82   -.1| .67    .0| 62.2  63.2|    -1.2|     |           |
| P.SD     8.3    3.8    23.4     5.0| .50    .6| .42    .4| 20.7  11.7|     5.5|     |           |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Batchelorette Australia is a TV series on Australian TV, Network 10, tenplay.com.au. It started on October 10, 2018.

Each guy (contestant) is a row in the data. In most episodes, the eliminated guys are score 0. Other guys are scored in higher categories depending on the attention they received from Ali. Since the scoring varies across episodes, the Partial Credit Model, ISGROUPS=0, is used. For details of each episode, please see Wikipedia: The Batchelorette Australia (series 4).

The guys are listed by name. The number immediately preceding each name is their order of elimination, counting backwards. There are two additional rows. These are used for hypothetical "Minimum" (who is less desirable than anyone) and "Maximum" (who is more desirable than anyone). These are anchored at 0 and 100 to establish a constant frame-of-reference across the Batchelorette episodes.

The columns (items) are labeled with codes such as "1-Meet". "1" indicates the week number. "Meet" indicates the type of event. In addition to a column for each episode, there are three additional columns. The first data column, "Pre", is a Bayesian item containing ratings for the contestants (all the same), Maximum and Minimum. This gives us reasonable estimates to launch the process. The last item column, "Now", is also Bayesian. This gives the current best estimate for each active guy in the anchored-frame of reference. It is similar to "Pre", but inactive contestants are omitted. This column models the fact that contestants are changing their desirability. Ali is liking some more, and others less. The very last column, "Wins", is weighted zero, so that it does not influence any of the contestant estimates. This is used to estimate the probability for each contestant based on the current difficulty of winning the competition. This difficulty is such that the sum of the probabilities for the active contestants of succeeding on this "item" is 1.0. The probabilities are reported in the Winsteps XFILE= as (RESIDUAL or 1-RESIDUAL) for this item. This is the Winning Probability Percent in the Table above.

After each episode, the outcomes are scored based on the Ali's opinions and actions, and entered into an Excel spreadsheet, available here. This is then converted into the Winsteps control and data file shown below and here by means of the Winsteps Excel/RSSST menu. USCALE=10 and other control instructions have been added to rescale the measures into more friendly numbers.


&INST
Title= "batchelorette-aus-2018.xls"
; Excel file created or last modified: 11/15/2018 10:02:19 PM
; Sheet1
;     Excel Cases processed = 20
; Excel Variables processed = 19
ITEM1 = 1 ; Starting column of item responses
NI = 15 ; Number of items
NAME1 = 17 ; Starting column for person label in data record
NAMLEN = 11 ; Length of person label
XWIDE = 1 ; Matches the widest data value observed

ISGROUPS = 0 ; Partial Credit model: in case items have different rating scales
IWEIGHT = 5W4 ; for "Win"
USCALE = 10 ; high score = high ability, rescaled for 0-100 = 10 logits
UDECIMALS = 1
PAFILE=*
19 100  ; anchor maximum performance at 100
20 0    ; anchor minimum performance at 0
*
CONVERGE=B
LCONV=.01
RCONV=.1
FREQ = HARD ; for the Wright Person-Item Map
LESS = MORE
MORE = LESS
RARE = EASY
TITLE = Batchelorette Australia 2018 - November 15
PERSON = Guy Nov 15
ITEM = TASK
LINELENGTH = 120
TFILE=*
16.3
17.1
*


CODES = "01234 " ; matches the data
TOTALSCORE = Yes ; Include extreme responses in reported scores
; Person Label variables: columns in label: columns in line
@Guy = 1E10 ; $C17W10
&END ; Item labels follow: columns in label
0-Pre ; Item 1 : 1-1
1-Meet ; Item 2 : 2-2
2-Photo ; Item 3 : 3-3
3-Glad ; Item 4 : 4-4
4-Comp ; Item 5 : 5-5
5-Bike ; Item 6 : 6-6
6-Inter ; Item 7 : 7-7
7-RoL ; Item 8 : 8-8
8-Apo ; Item 9 : 9-9
9-Beer ; Item 10 : 10-10
10-Home ; Item 11 : 11-11
11-Dates ; Item 12 : 12-12
12-Finale ; Item 13 : 13-13
Now ; Item 14 : 14-14
Win 0 ; Item 15 : 15-15
END NAMES
122212324221111 Taite
1222222431220   02-Todd
141243223210    03-Bill
13423422110     04-Charlie
1222212320      05-Daniel
122222210       06-Dan
112231220       07-Paddy
12333210        08-Robert
1212220         09-Peter
1222310         10-Danny
122230          11-Jules
122130          12-Ivan
12120           13-Nathan
1220            14-Damien
1210            15-Wesley
120             16-Cheyne
10              17-Ben
10              18-Brendan
2            2  Max
0            0  Min

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