Winsteps Table 45 Plot: Cumulative girl measures after each episode
Winsteps Table 45 Plot: Cumulative girl measures after each episode
MEASURE TASK - MAP - Girl Oct 4
EASY|LESS
100 + 99 Max
|
|
|
|
90 +
|
|
|
|
80 +
X |
|
|
70 +T
|
|
|
|
60 T+
|
|
|
|
50 S+
|S 02 Brittany 03 Brooke
XX |
| 02 Sophie
XXX | 04 Cass
40 XXXX + 05 Dasha
XX M| 08 Jamie-Lee
X | 06 Emily 07 Shannon 08+1 Tenille 10+3 Romy
X | 09+3 Alisha
30 + 09+1 Deanna
| 11+3 Cat 13+3 Rhiannon
X S|
XX |M
X | 09+2 Brittney 12+3 Ashlea 16 Aleksandra
20 + 15 Blair
|
| 14 Vanessa 17 Steph
T| 18 Cayla 19 Christina
|
10 +
|
| 20 Kayla
|
|S 21 Juliana 22 Renee
0 + 98 Min
|
|
|
-10 +
|
|
|
| 23 Autumn 24 Suzie 25 Urszula
-20 +
HARD|MORE
|
The girls' desirabilities are shown in the Wright Person-Item map: Winsteps Table 16.3.
Girl Oct 4 STATISTICS: MEASURE ORDER ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |ENTRY TOTAL TOTAL MODEL| INFIT | OUTFIT |EXACT MATCH| | | |NUMBER SCORE COUNT MEASURE S.E. |MNSQ ZSTD|MNSQ ZSTD| OBS% EXP%|DISPLACE| Girl Oct 4 | |------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+--------------| | 30 5 3 100.0A 19.7| .13 -.6| .11 -.6|100.0 90.2| .0| 99 Max | | 3 34 16 47.8 3.0|1.18 .7|1.11 .4| 31.3 44.3| .1| 03 Brooke | | 1 33 17 46.8 3.0| .67 -1.1| .74 -.4| 58.8 46.8| .1| 02 Brittany | | 2 29 17 43.2 3.0|1.03 .2| .77 -.2| 47.1 53.8| .1| 02 Sophie | | 4 27 15 41.9 3.1| .78 -.6| .84 -.1| 53.3 49.5| .1| 04 Cass | | 5 23 14 38.8 3.5|1.03 .2|1.21 .5| 35.7 54.7| .1| 05 Dasha | | 8 8 6 36.9 5.1| .79 -.2| .71 -.1| 66.7 51.9| .1| 08 Jamie-Lee | | 9 18 11 35.6 4.3| .88 -.1| .81 .1| 72.7 56.8| .1| 08+1 Tenille | | 13 15 9 35.1 5.2|1.07 .3| .87 .3| 55.6 61.7| .1| 10+3 Romy | | 6 20 14 34.9 3.8| .93 .0| .75 .0| 57.1 56.0| .1| 06 Emily | | 7 19 13 34.2 4.0| .52 -1.1| .58 -.2| 69.2 61.1| .1| 07 Shannon | | 12 14 9 32.4 5.3| .58 -.7| .41 -.1| 66.7 64.3| .0| 09+3 Alisha | | 10 4 4 30.1 6.7|1.17 .5| .84 .1| 50.0 52.8| .1| 09+1 Deanna | | 14 13 9 29.5 5.4| .88 .0| .81 .3| 55.6 65.4| .0| 11+3 Cat | | 16 12 8 28.6 6.1|1.94 1.3|1.63 .9| 62.5 70.5| .0| 13+3 Rhiannon| | 11 2 3 22.7 9.7| .18 -1.0| .19 -1.0|100.0 67.5| .1| 09+2 Brittney| | 19 7 5 21.6 8.2| .79 .0| .77 .3| 60.0 75.9| .0| 16 Aleksandra| | 15 10 8 21.4 5.8| .42 -1.1| .31 -.2| 75.0 65.2| .0| 12+3 Ashlea | | 18 8 6 20.0 6.6|1.46 .9|1.39 .7| 66.7 67.8| .0| 15 Blair | | 17 8 7 16.7 6.0|1.22 .6|1.66 .9| 42.9 59.3| .0| 14 Vanessa | | 20 6 5 15.6 7.5| .64 -.5| .49 .0| 60.0 64.2| .0| 17 Steph | | 21 5 4 13.5 8.1|1.21 .5| .83 .4| 50.0 64.9| .0| 18 Cayla | | 22 5 4 13.5 8.1|1.21 .5| .83 .4| 50.0 64.9| .0| 19 Christina | | 23 4 4 6.7 8.6| .20 -.9| .14 -.5|100.0 78.0| .0| 20 Kayla | | 24 3 3 .5 9.8| .61 -.3| .51 .1| 33.3 53.2| -.1| 21 Juliana | | 25 3 3 .5 9.8| .61 -.3| .51 .1| 33.3 53.2| -.1| 22 Renee | | 29 0 2 .0A 19.3|3.71 2.0|9.02 2.8| 50.0 81.3| -56.1| 98 Min | | 26 1 2 -17.4 13.8| .23 -.3| .25 -.4|100.0 79.0| -.1| 23 Autumn | | 27 1 2 -17.4 13.8| .23 -.3| .25 -.4|100.0 79.0| -.1| 24 Suzie | | 28 1 2 -17.4 13.8| .23 -.3| .25 -.4|100.0 79.0| -.1| 25 Urszula | |------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+--------------| | MEAN 11.3 7.5 23.9 7.7| .88 -.1| .99 .1| 63.4 63.7| -1.9| | | P.SD 9.8 4.9 23.1 4.4| .67 .7|1.54 .7| 21.3 11.3| 10.1| | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
The Batchelor Australia is a TV series on Australian TV, Network 10, tenplay.com.au. Series 6 started on August 15, 2018.
Each girl (contestant) is a row in the data matrix. Each episode, or part of an episode, is a column (item, task) in the data matrix. In the first episode, 25 girls met batchelor Nick Cummins. 3 girls were eliminated. 1 girl, Brooke, was awarded the "key to the batch pad" for a private meeting with Nick.
In most episodes, the eliminated girls are score 0. Other girls are scored in higher categories depending on the attention they received from Nick. Since the scoring varies across episodes, the Partial Credit Model, ISGROUPS=0, is used. For details of each episode, please see Wikipedia: The Batchelor Australia (series 6).
The girls are listed by name. The number immediately preceding each name is their order of elimination, counting backwards. There are two additional rows. These are used for hypothetical "Minimum" (who is less desirable than anyone) and "Maximum" (who is more desirable than anyone). These are anchored at 0 and 100 to establish a constant frame-of-reference across the Batchelor episodes.
The columns (items) are labeled with codes such as "1-Meet". "1" indicates the week number. "Meet" indicates the type of event. In addition to a column for each episode, there are three additional columns. The first data column, "Pre", is a Bayesian item containing ratings for the contestants (all the same), Maximum and Minimum. This gives us reasonable estimates to launch the process. The last item column, "Now", is also Bayesian. This gives the current best estimate for each active girl in the anchored-frame of reference. It is similar to "Pre", but inactive contestants are omitted. This column models the fact that contestants are changing their desirability. Nick is liking some more, and others less. The very last column, "Wins", is weighted zero, so that it does not influence any of the contestant estimates. This is used to estimate the probability for each contestant based on the current difficulty of winning the competition. This difficulty is such that the sum of the probabilities for the active contestants of succeeding on this "item" is 1.0. The probabilities are reported in the XFILE= as (RESIDUAL or 1-RESIDUAL) for this item. This is the Winning Probability Percent in the Table above.
After each episode, the outcomes are scored based on the Nick's opinions and actions, and entered into an Excel spreadsheet, available here. This is then converted into the Winsteps control and data file shown below and here by means of the Winsteps Excel/RSSST menu. USCALE=10 and other control instructions have been added to rescale the measures into more friendly numbers.
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